| Buy Heavy's Axis Power Craps Manual |
Axis Power Craps details five skill sets almost anyone can learn. Master these and you too can become a precision craps shooter. Order now and find out how!
Axis Power Craps includes betting strategies for every dice pre-set arrangement. Precision dice shooting works for both right-way and wrong-way play. Your package features an instructional 100 page workbook with dozens of photographs of dice pre-sets and grips. Each book comes with two shirt-pocket precision dice shooting strategy cards, as well as practice forms you can duplicate and use to record your rolls.
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| Hybrid Craps Strategies - Do You or Don't You |
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| Posted on Wednesday, July 23 @ 01:13:39 EDT by heavy |
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 Hybrid Craps Strategies
by Steve "Heavy" Haltom
Every month I receive newsletters from other gaming education outfits, and it’s always interesting to read their take on the game - just as it is no doubt interesting to them to read what we have to say here on the CrapsFest website. To say we have different philosophies when it comes to betting would be an understatement.
Take, for instance, their system that combines the Doey-Don’t with the Five Count. It calls for the player to make consecutive Pass/Don’t Pass and Come/Don’t Come wagers until the player has five bets established. Then the player takes odds on all of the Come bets and collects as the numbers repeat.
Click on "read more" at the top of this article for the rest of the story.
At first glance this appears to the novice at craps to be a smart play. But after you put a pencil to it you have to question the perspicacity of the idiot who came up with this idea. It’s clear he does not grasp the difference in real-world math and casino math. And yes, there is a difference.
Take, for example, the underlying concept behind the Doey-Don’t. The thought is that by playing both Come and Don’t Come bets you reduce the possibility of losing your bet to the two and three craps and save your Pass Line and Come bets. Since the twelve is barred on the Don’ts you’ll still lose your right side bets to it. But you pay a great price for that Pass/Come bet hedge. You give up your wins on the seven and eleven in exchange for your insurance against two out of three of the craps numbers. That’s where the casino gets its juice. And that’s why this system makes no sense.
When calculating the house edge on any given series of bets you have to consider each bet separately. The house edge on the Pass Line is roughly 1.41%. The edge on the Don’t Pass is about 1.40%. If you run the calculations on the combined Doey-Don’t bet you come up with a house edge of approximately 2.82%. Of course, you then have to take the next step and divide that number by two, since you have two separate bets. And that brings you right back where you started from - about 1.41% per bet.
The other part of this play I don’t like is the fact that the player is told to take odds on the Pass Line and all of the Come bets after the five count. Logic tells us that this idea is inherently wrong. Why? First off, because it succumbs to another casino-math lie.
The casino math folks tell us that you have a 2-1 advantage on the Pass Line and Come bet. If you are playing Pass and Don't Pass or Come bets and Don't Come bets at the same time then they are correct as far as that one roll is concerned. But once that bet is established we need to consider the rest of the story. We no longer have an advantage on the Pass or Come bet as the “2-1 advantage” statement implies. Why? Because the 2-1 advantage they are talking about only refers to the twelve combinations of the dice that add up to two, three, seven, eleven, and twelve. There are twenty-four other possible outcomes that the 2-1 casino math mis-direct ignores.
To get the full story you have to consider what happens to the Pass or Come bet once it's point is established. After the Pass and Come bets are established they lose roughly two out of three times. Your 2-1 advantage turns into a 3-2 disadvantage. So why take odds on the Come bet after the five count as the math midget who came up with this play suggests? That’s an excellent question. A smarter play would be to Lay the odds on the Don't. But that is a subject for another article.
Remember, the casino has the advantage over every bet on the layout, and while the math guys will argue this - that statement also applies to the Free Odds bet. Why? Because no casino will let you walk up and play a Free Odds bet without making an underlying Pass/Don’t Pass or Come/Don’t Come bet. Your Free Odds bet effectively reduces the house edge on those wagers, but it does not eliminate it.
Is there a place for the Doey-Don’t strategy in your game. Perhaps. In Vegas last week I saw a toothless retiree playing $6 Don't Pass bets combined with $5 Pass Line bets. From his point of view he was risking only $1 per hand and as long as he continued to stand at the table the cocktail server would continue to offer free drinks. For him - Seven and Seven was the only math that mattered.
Want to get more out of your game? Remember that most betting systems look much better on paper than they do in the casino. Before you head to the casino determines your advantage based on your skill level and the house edge on the various bets - then play YOUR game, not someone else’s.
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